In successive Throne Speeches the Trudeau Government has declared that climate change is the defining challenge of our time and promised, in Bill C12 introduced November 19, 2020, to legislate Net-0 emissions by 2050.
It is curious however that our PM has not shared with us where Canada is today so that we can understand how big the challenge is to reach Net-0. Simply put, what is our current net carbon balance?
Consider the following: The G20 industrial nations are responsible for over 70% of global CO2 emissions but five of the G20 have domestic absorption capacity that may be large enough to cover their national emissions – Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada and Russia emit 100 tonnes per square kilometre or less , which is the global average land absorption. Subject to confirming the actual absorption by their respective domestic ecosystems, these countries could be Net-0 today! The rest of the G20 each emit between 250 and 6,500 t/sq.km.
At 57 t/sq.km, Canada is well under 100t/sq km and has a large, intact natural environment. The problem arises in that Canada does not prepare or publish a formal accounting of our country’s carbon cycle. If you ask, the generally-offered response is the ‘National Inventory Report: Greenhouse gas sources and sinks in Canada’ but that report focused on “managed lands” and so does not include most of Canada. It cannot be used as a proxy for our current, actual carbon balance.
Unlike Canada’s Parliament, the U.S. Congress has mandated climate reporting since 1990 and their ‘Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report; 2018′, also includes Mexico and Canada. From the U.S. report, four notable observations related to Canada can be gleaned.
Note: the US study is expressed as carbon, the numbers below are carbon dioxide ( CX3.664=CO2)
- Canada’s estimated carbon sinks range as high as 872mmt CO2; our latest emissions from Environment Canada are 587mmt.
- 1,260mmt, more than twice Canada’s emissions, were not allocated to any country’s sinks due to lack of data. Much of the missing data is for Canada.
- 953 mmt, 34% of North America’s carbon sink, is due to inland waters. None was allocated to Canada due to lack of data, even though we have 3/4ths of the continent’s inland waters.
- Using atmospheric measurements, 2,560mmt was absorbed by North American lands. Canada makes up nearly 50% of that land, but we would need less than 25% of the sink to reach Net-0.
This evidence give us good reason to believe that Canada is likely Net-0 today. Obviously, we should do what’s necessary to keep it that way by basing our discussion and policy choices on the natural and fully-inclusive carbon cycle.
Why would the prime minister or any of the provincial premiers concede that Canada has a carbon debt to the world? We simply don’t have detailed evidence as proof for that debt and the incomplete data that does exist indicates that we are near Net-0 today.
Whatever the cost is to research and assemble a definitive and ongoing account for the state of Canada’s carbon cycle, it will be a drop in the bucket when compared with the cost in dollars, jobs, and political friction we will continue to suffer by following the PM’s knowledge-averse path. He has declared this is our existential challenge and so, as a responsible leader, should answer the basic question: What is Canada’s current net carbon balance?
For Canadians who do not support Trudeau’s path, the best and most obvious defense against forced carbon taxes has always been that we are Net-0 today. Ottawa has avoided proving that Canada actually has a net carbon debt because a definitive study is unlikely to support the current approach. There is no reason to impose carbon taxes on a Net-0 country, except to provide international aid. If aid is the goal, there are far more efficient and targeted ways to assist other countries reduce their emissions or increase their sinks.
For Canadians who view climate and environment as an emergency, Canada is following United Nations leadership and that contains a glaring flaw. The UN avoids the genesis of the problem that continues to plague us, which is that population growth and human activity are eroding the world’s natural capacity to absorb CO2 because there is no tangible value placed on the natural environment… but there should be.
It’s time we recognize that Canada’s natural environment is not worthless to Canadians, to the UN, or to the planet, when seeking a carbon balance. The planet’s climate and ecology would benefit greatly if Canada (and other Net-0 nations) flew the flag of carbon removal while all countries pursued emissions reductions through efficiency and transitioned to lower carbon alternatives. We are 30 years late but not too late for Canadian leadership.
From a regional perspective, if Western Canada wants a fair climate deal, it’s obvious that the only real choice is to lead, not follow Ottawa, beginning with doing the work to establish today’s carbon balance. The federal government will not do this work, already having chosen a path that depends on an ‘assets withheld’ set of ‘cooked’ carbon books. The reported 13mmt CO2 removed according to the National Inventory Report is nowhere near reality, and yet is the cornerstone on which federal policies and legislation rest.
Surely Alberta and Saskatchewan’s 48 MPs can mobilize to present legislation before Parliament requiring submission of a Canadian State of the Carbon Cycle Report with no part of our country’s geography or ecology left out. This would allow all Canadians to clearly understand our carbon cycle and where our opportunities and responsibilities lie.
Can any politician, regardless of party, honestly argue that policies based on incomplete carbon accounting don’t present a great danger as well as a lost opportunity? Have the Premiers sought to address the same question as a group or individually? Canada is much closer to Net-0 than our PM or the prevailing public narrative would have us believe.
Good government is based on the whole, balanced and unvarnished truth. Are any of Canada’s leaders willing to conduct or support the necessary work to give Canadians the informed climate and environment leadership we need and deserve?